USA: MLSThursday 23 Jul, 00:30 UTC

Austin FC vSeattle Sounders FC

Most likely scoreline
11
11% of the time · 2.99 goals expected
Austin FC 31%Draw 30%Seattle Sounders FC 40%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
80%

Over 1.5 Goals hits 80% probability as both sides combine for 2.99 expected goals in an evenly matched contest where Seattle's 40% win chance reflects attacking depth through Jordan Morris on the wing.

How we get there
Austin FCstepSeattle Sounders FC
1.23Base xG · rolling 26-match1.70
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.39Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.60
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
80%
Over 3.5 goals
25%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Austin average 5.2 corners per game at home this season (23 competitive matches). Seattle Sounders average 5.3 corners per game away from home this season (26 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
8
6
3
1
1
7
11
9
5
2
1
2
5
8
6
3
1
3
2
4
3
2
1
4
1
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Austin vs Seattle Sounders — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Austin and Seattle Sounders — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Austin 31% · draw 30% · Seattle Sounders 40%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Austin FC 31 Seattle Sounders FC
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.