World: World CupSunday 05 Jul, 20:00 UTC

Brazil vNorway

Most likely scoreline
11
11% of the time · 2.92 goals expected
Brazil 52%Draw 28%Norway 20%
Strongest call
Over 2.5 goals
76%

Over 2.5 Goals lands at 76% with Brazil generating 1.84 xG at home while Norway's Haaland (30% of their xG) faces a 0.76 expected-goal deficit.

How we get there
BrazilstepNorway
1.84Base xG · rolling 26-match1.08
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.84Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.08
Most likely outcomes
Over 2.5 goals
76%
Under 2.5 goals
24%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Brazil average 5.0 corners per game at home this season (3 competitive matches). Norway average 4.0 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
6
3
1
1
10
11
6
2
1
2
9
10
5
2
1
3
6
6
3
1
4
3
3
2
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Erling Haaland
Norway · Man City
62%
To score
Vinícius Jr
Brazil · Real Madrid
50%
To score
Raphinha
Brazil · Barcelona
43%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Brazil vs Norway — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Brazil and Norway — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Brazil 52% · draw 28% · Norway 20%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Brazil 12 Norway
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.