FT · World: World Cup · Sunday, 05 July 2026

Brazil 12 NorwayMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 05 July 2026

Brazil
12
Norway win
Norway
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Brazil at 52%, draw at 28%, Norway at 20%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Brazil to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Brazil win
52%
Draw
28%
Norway win
20%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.841.08
Total 2.92
Actual
12
Total 3 (+0.1 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 2.5 Goals lands at 76% with Brazil generating 1.84 xG at home while Norway's Haaland (30% of their xG) faces a 0.76 expected-goal deficit."

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