USA: MLSThursday 23 Jul, 00:15 UTC

Charlotte FC vAtlanta United FC

Most likely scoreline
11
11% of the time · 2.90 goals expected
Charlotte FC 48%Draw 29%Atlanta United FC 23%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
76%

Over 1.5 Goals lands at 76% because Charlotte's 1.74 xG dominates Atlanta's 1.15, creating a 0.59 gap that signals multiple chances will convert.

How we get there
Charlotte FCstepAtlanta United FC
1.54Base xG · rolling 26-match1.23
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.74Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.15
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
76%
Over 3.5 goals
23%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Charlotte average 4.1 corners per game at home this season (29 competitive matches). Atlanta Utd average 3.7 corners per game away from home this season (23 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
6
4
1
1
10
11
6
2
1
2
8
10
6
2
1
3
5
6
3
1
4
2
2
1
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Charlotte vs Atlanta Utd — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Charlotte and Atlanta Utd — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Charlotte 48% · draw 29% · Atlanta Utd 23%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Charlotte FC 22 Atlanta United FC
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.