USA: MLSSunday 02 Aug, 00:30 UTC

Chicago Fire FC vCharlotte FC

Most likely scoreline
11
10% of the time · 3.14 goals expected
Chicago Fire FC 49%Draw 28%Charlotte FC 24%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
78%

Over 1.5 Goals sits at 78% probability, backed by Chicago's 0.61 expected-goal advantage and a combined 3.14 xG total that strongly favors an open, multi-goal contest.

How we get there
Chicago Fire FCstepCharlotte FC
1.66Base xG · rolling 26-match1.35
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.88Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.27
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
78%
Over 3.5 goals
27%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Chicago Fire average 5.4 corners per game at home this season (26 competitive matches). Charlotte average 4.1 corners per game away from home this season (22 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
4
5
3
1
1
8
10
6
3
1
2
8
10
6
3
1
3
5
6
4
2
1
4
2
3
2
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Chicago Fire vs Charlotte — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Chicago Fire and Charlotte — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Chicago Fire 49% · draw 28% · Charlotte 24%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Chicago Fire FC 21 Charlotte FC
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.