How it finished
Tajikistan beat China 1–0. Bawler's model favoured China at 40% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Tajikistan 32%. It forecast 2.6 goals; only 1 was scored. China had 4 shots (3 on target) to Tajikistan's 10 (4), with 30% of the ball against 70%. Expected goals finished 0.2 to 1.9.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 69%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won China vs Tajikistan?
Tajikistan beat China 1–0. Bawler's model favoured China at 40% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Tajikistan 32%. It forecast 2.6 goals; only 1 was scored. China had 4 shots (3 on target) to Tajikistan's 10 (4), with 30% of the ball against 70%. Expected goals finished 0.2 to 1.9.
What was the final score in China vs Tajikistan?
China 0–1 Tajikistan, played on 06 Oct 2026 in the World: International Friendly. Bawler's model had gone into it with China 40%, the draw 28% and Tajikistan 32%.
What were the stats in China vs Tajikistan?
Full-time: Possession 30%–70%, Expected goals (xG) 0.2–1.9, Shots 4–10, Shots on target 3–4, Shots inside box 3–5, Big chances 0–2, Corners 3–3, Saves 3–3, Fouls 11–13, Offsides 4–1, Yellow cards 4–4, Red cards 1–0.
Did both teams score in China vs Tajikistan?
No. It finished 0–1, so China failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 54% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for China vs Tajikistan right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said China or draw 68%, it finished Tajikistan won (32% called); Total goals — we said 2.6, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 54%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 74%, it finished Missed.