Colombia vGhana
Over 1.5 Goals dominates at 77% probability because Colombia's 1.67 xG advantage and Luis Díaz's 22% of team creation edge Ghana's 1.03 xG by 0.64—a decisive gap on a small expected-goal total.
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
Colombia average 4.3 corners per game at home this season (3 competitive matches). Ghana average 2.0 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).
Most likely to score or assist
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.
More predictions for these teams
Colombia vs Ghana — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Colombia and Ghana — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Colombia 49% · draw 30% · Ghana 21%.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.