Bawler / Colombia vs Ghana / Recap
FT · World: World Cup · Saturday, 04 July 2026

Colombia 1–0 GhanaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 04 July 2026

Colombia
1–0
Colombia win
Ghana
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Colombia at 49%, draw at 30%, Ghana at 21%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Colombia.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Colombia win
49%
Actual ✓
Draw
30%
Ghana win
21%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.67 – 1.03
Total 2.70
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.7 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals dominates at 77% probability because Colombia's 1.67 xG advantage and Luis Díaz's 22% of team creation edge Ghana's 1.03 xG by 0.64—a decisive gap on a small expected-goal total."

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