World: World CupSaturday 27 Jun, 23:30 UTC

Colombia vPortugal

Most likely scoreline
11
12% of the time · 2.69 goals expected
Colombia 33%Draw 32%Portugal 35%
Strongest call
Over 2.5 goals
71%

Over 2.5 Goals lands at 71% because Colombia's Luis Díaz and Portugal's Cristiano Ronaldo—each commanding 22% of their team's attacking threat—face a combined xG of 2.69 in a fixture with no clear defensive edge.

How we get there
ColombiastepPortugal
1.32Base xG · rolling 26-match1.37
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.32Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.37
Most likely outcomes
Over 2.5 goals
71%
Over 3.5 goals
24%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Colombia average 4.3 corners per game at home this season (3 competitive matches). Portugal average 4.3 corners per game this season (4 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
9
6
3
1
1
9
12
8
4
1
2
6
8
6
3
1
3
3
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Cristiano Ronaldo
Portugal · Al Nassr
52%
To score
Luis Díaz
Colombia · Bayern Munich
38%
To score
Rafael Leão
Portugal · AC Milan
36%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Colombia vs Portugal — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Colombia and Portugal — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Colombia 33% · draw 32% · Portugal 35%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Colombia 00 Portugal
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.