Bawler / Colombia vs Portugal / Recap
FT · World: World Cup · Sunday, 28 June 2026

Colombia 0–0 PortugalMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 28 June 2026

Colombia
0–0
Draw
Portugal
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Colombia at 33%, draw at 32%, Portugal at 35%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Portugal to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Colombia win
33%
Draw
32%
Actual ✓
Portugal win
35%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.32 – 1.37
Total 2.69
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-2.7 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 2.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 71%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 2.5 Goals lands at 71% because Colombia's Luis Díaz and Portugal's Cristiano Ronaldo—each commanding 22% of their team's attacking threat—face a combined xG of 2.69 in a fixture with no clear defensive edge."

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