USA: MLSSunday 02 Aug, 01:30 UTC

Colorado Rapids vAustin FC

Most likely scoreline
11
10% of the time · 2.97 goals expected
Colorado Rapids 54%Draw 27%Austin FC 19%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
77%

Over 1.5 Goals sits at 77% probability because Colorado's 1.91 xG vastly outpaces Austin's 1.06, suggesting the hosts will consistently threaten a low-scoring stalemate into a multi-goal evening.

How we get there
Colorado RapidsstepAustin FC
1.69Base xG · rolling 26-match1.13
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.91Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.06
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
77%
Over 3.5 goals
24%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Colorado Rapids average 6.2 corners per game at home this season (22 competitive matches). Austin average 3.5 corners per game away from home this season (26 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
5
3
1
1
10
10
6
2
1
2
9
10
5
2
3
6
6
3
1
4
3
3
2
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Colorado Rapids vs Austin — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Colorado Rapids and Austin — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Colorado Rapids 54% · draw 27% · Austin 19%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Colorado Rapids 10 Austin FC
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.