Cyprus vs Armenia prediction — UEFA Nations League · Fri 2 Oct · 17:00 UK

UEFA Nations League · Fri 2 Oct · 17:00 UK
Cyprus 49Draw 25Armenia 26
Our call before kickoff
74%
Cyprus or draw
Landed
2.9
Goals expected
Full time
Final 2–0
Goal before half-time (before kick-off)
72%
Both teams score (before kick-off)
56%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
55%

How it finished

Cyprus beat Armenia 2–0. Bawler's model had Cyprus in front at 49% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals; only 2 were scored. Cyprus had 8 shots (4 on target) to Armenia's 16 (5), with 33% of the ball against 67%. On expected goals it was 0.6 to 0.8, so Armenia created the better chances and still lost the game.

CyprusFull-time statsArmenia
33%Possession67%
0.6Expected goals (xG)0.8
8Shots16
4Shots on target5
6Shots inside box6
2Big chances2
1Corners11
3Saves2
6Fouls10
1Offsides1
0Yellow cards2
1Red cards0
What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callCyprus or draw 74%Cyprus won (49% called)
Total goals2.92
Both teams to score56%No
Graded pickOver 1.5 goals 78%Landed
Second pickOver 2.5 goals 55%Missed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

CyprusArmenia
1.7
Goals+0.5
1.2
CyprusArmenia
0.5
Goals+0.1
0.4
CyprusArmenia
1.2
Goals+0.4
0.8

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability
Cyprus to score82%
Over 1.5 goals78%
Armenia to score69%
Under 3.5 goals68%

First half — what we expected

Cyprus
53%
to score before half-time
Armenia
40%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 72%

Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (home minus away)+0.5 / match
Head-to-head, last 2Cyprus 0 · Draws 1 · Armenia 1

Head to head

Mar 2023Armenia 2–2 Cyprus
Nov 2017Armenia 3–2 Cyprus
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Cyprus vs Armenia?

Cyprus beat Armenia 2–0. Bawler's model had Cyprus in front at 49% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals; only 2 were scored. Cyprus had 8 shots (4 on target) to Armenia's 16 (5), with 33% of the ball against 67%. On expected goals it was 0.6 to 0.8, so Armenia created the better chances and still lost the game.

What was the final score in Cyprus vs Armenia?

Cyprus 2–0 Armenia, played on 02 Oct 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Cyprus 49%, the draw 25% and Armenia 26%.

What were the stats in Cyprus vs Armenia?

Full-time: Possession 33%–67%, Expected goals (xG) 0.6–0.8, Shots 8–16, Shots on target 4–5, Shots inside box 6–6, Big chances 2–2, Corners 1–11, Saves 3–2, Fouls 6–10, Offsides 1–1, Yellow cards 0–2, Red cards 1–0.

Did both teams score in Cyprus vs Armenia?

No. It finished 2–0, so Armenia failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 56% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Cyprus vs Armenia right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Cyprus or draw 74%, it finished Cyprus won (49% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 56%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 78%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 55%, it finished Missed.

Around this fixture

All fixtures & results →Cyprus form →Armenia form →