Portugal: Primeira LigaSunday 16 Aug, 19:30 UTC

FC Famalicao vMaritimo

Most likely scoreline
1–0
13% of the time · 2.47 goals expected
FC Famalicao 48%Draw 32%Maritimo 20%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
70%

Over 1.5 Goals lands at 70% confidence because Famalicao's 0.61 xG edge signals enough attacking threat to break through a Maritimo side generating just 0.93 expected goals.

How we get there
FC FamalicaostepMaritimo
1.36Base xG · rolling 26-match0.99
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.54Final goal estimate — what the model uses0.93
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
70%
Maritimo or draw
24%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Famalicao average 5.7 corners per game at home this season (17 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
8
4
1
1
13
12
6
2
2
10
9
4
1
3
5
5
2
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

FC Famalicao fixtures & form →Maritimo fixtures & form →

Famalicao vs Maritimo — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Famalicao and Maritimo — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Famalicao 48% · draw 32% · Maritimo 20%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

Famalicao predictions & form →Maritimo predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.