FT · EUROPE: Europa League - Qualification · Thursday, 13 August 2026
Heart of Midlothian 1–1 BenficaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 13 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Heart of Midlothian at 41%, draw at 33%, Benfica at 26%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Heart of Midlothian to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Midlothian win
41%
Draw
33%
Actual ✓
Benfica win
26%
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 73%
✓ Won
Outside shot
X2
Pre-match: 26%
✓ Won