EUROPE: Europa League - QualificationThursday 13 Aug, 18:45 UTC

Heart of Midlothian vBenfica

Most likely scoreline
1–1
13% of the time · 2.50 goals expected
Heart of Midlothian 41%Draw 33%Benfica 26%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
73%
How we get there
Heart of MidlothianstepBenfica
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
73%
Benfica or draw
26%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Hearts average 5.4 corners per game at home this season (22 competitive matches). Benfica average 7.0 corners per game away from home this season (23 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Heart of Midlothian fixtures & form →Benfica fixtures & form →

Hearts vs Benfica — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 6 August 2026, Hearts have won 0, Benfica have won 1, with 0 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
6 August 2026Benfica 6–1 HeartsEurope: Europa League - Qualification

The model's verdict for this fixture: Hearts 41% · draw 33% · Benfica 26%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

Hearts predictions & form →Benfica predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
⚡ Full-time recap available
Heart of Midlothian 1–1 Benfica
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.