USA: MLSSunday 26 Jul, 00:30 UTC

Houston Dynamo FC vAustin FC

Most likely scoreline
11
11% of the time · 2.93 goals expected
Houston Dynamo FC 54%Draw 28%Austin FC 19%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
77%

Over 1.5 Goals is the play at 77% probability, with Houston's 0.83 expected-goal advantage creating the ceiling for a low-scoring affair that rarely stays quiet.

How we get there
Houston Dynamo FCstepAustin FC
1.66Base xG · rolling 26-match1.12
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.88Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.05
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
77%
Over 3.5 goals
24%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Houston Dynamo average 5.5 corners per game at home this season (23 competitive matches). Austin average 3.5 corners per game away from home this season (26 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
6
3
1
1
10
11
6
2
1
2
9
10
5
2
3
6
6
3
1
4
3
3
2
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Houston Dynamo vs Austin — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Houston Dynamo and Austin — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Houston Dynamo 54% · draw 28% · Austin 19%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Houston Dynamo FC 30 Austin FC
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.