How it finished
Iceland beat Bulgaria 3–0. Bawler's model had Iceland in front at 74% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.4 goals and the match produced 3. Iceland had 10 shots (6 on target) to Bulgaria's 10 (3), with 51% of the ball against 49%. Expected goals finished 3.0 to 1.1.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 78%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Iceland vs Bulgaria?
Iceland beat Bulgaria 3–0. Bawler's model had Iceland in front at 74% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.4 goals and the match produced 3. Iceland had 10 shots (6 on target) to Bulgaria's 10 (3), with 51% of the ball against 49%. Expected goals finished 3.0 to 1.1.
What was the final score in Iceland vs Bulgaria?
Iceland 3–0 Bulgaria, played on 03 Oct 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Iceland 74%, the draw 16% and Bulgaria 10%.
What were the stats in Iceland vs Bulgaria?
Full-time: Possession 51%–49%, Expected goals (xG) 3.0–1.1, Shots 10–10, Shots on target 6–3, Shots inside box 7–7, Big chances 5–3, Corners 9–1, Saves 3–3, Fouls 11–14, Offsides 1–1, Yellow cards 2–4.
Did both teams score in Iceland vs Bulgaria?
No. It finished 3–0, so Bulgaria failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 53% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Iceland vs Bulgaria right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Iceland to win 74%, it finished Iceland won (74% called); Total goals — we said 3.4, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 53%, it finished No.