How it finished
Iceland and Estonia drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Iceland at 75% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 16%. It forecast 3.6 goals; only 2 were scored. Iceland had 19 shots (8 on target) to Estonia's 8 (5), with 63% of the ball against 37%. Expected goals finished 1.4 to 1.4.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 79%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Iceland vs Estonia?
Iceland and Estonia drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Iceland at 75% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 16%. It forecast 3.6 goals; only 2 were scored. Iceland had 19 shots (8 on target) to Estonia's 8 (5), with 63% of the ball against 37%. Expected goals finished 1.4 to 1.4.
What was the final score in Iceland vs Estonia?
Iceland 1–1 Estonia, played on 26 Sept 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Iceland 75%, the draw 16% and Estonia 9%.
What were the stats in Iceland vs Estonia?
Full-time: Possession 63%–37%, Expected goals (xG) 1.4–1.4, Shots 19–8, Shots on target 8–5, Shots inside box 13–5, Big chances 2–2, Corners 7–3, Saves 4–7, Fouls 13–13, Offsides 3–0, Yellow cards 1–2.
Did both teams score in Iceland vs Estonia?
Yes — both Iceland and Estonia scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 55% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Iceland vs Estonia right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Iceland to win 75%, it finished Draw (16% called); Total goals — we said 3.6, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 55%, it finished Yes.