Israel vs Kosovo prediction — UEFA Nations League · Thu 1 Oct · 19:45 UK

UEFA Nations League · Thu 1 Oct · 19:45 UK
Israel 15Draw 21Kosovo 64
Our call before kickoff
64%
Kosovo to win
Missed
3.1
Goals expected
Full time
Final 0–0
Goal before half-time (before kick-off)
74%
Both teams score (before kick-off)
54%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
59%

How it finished

Israel and Kosovo drew 0–0. Bawler's model favoured Kosovo at 64% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 21%. It forecast 3.1 goals; nobody scored. Israel had 10 shots (3 on target) to Kosovo's 18 (3), with 45% of the ball against 55%. Expected goals finished 0.7 to 0.7.

IsraelFull-time statsKosovo
45%Possession55%
0.7Expected goals (xG)0.7
10Shots18
3Shots on target3
7Shots inside box7
3Big chances0
4Corners5
3Saves3
8Fouls7
2Offsides0
What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callKosovo to win 64%Draw (21% called)
Total goals3.10
Both teams to score54%No

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

IsraelKosovo
0.9
Goals+1.2
2.1
IsraelKosovo
0.3
Goals+0.3
0.6
IsraelKosovo
0.6
Goals+0.9
1.5

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability
Kosovo to score88%
Over 1.5 goals81%
Under 3.5 goals63%
Israel to score61%

First half — what we expected

Israel
34%
to score before half-time
Kosovo
61%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 74%

Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (home minus away)-1.2 / match
Head-to-head, last 2Israel 0 · Draws 1 · Kosovo 1

Head to head

Nov 2023Kosovo 1–0 Israel
Mar 2023Israel 1–1 Kosovo
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Israel vs Kosovo?

Israel and Kosovo drew 0–0. Bawler's model favoured Kosovo at 64% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 21%. It forecast 3.1 goals; nobody scored. Israel had 10 shots (3 on target) to Kosovo's 18 (3), with 45% of the ball against 55%. Expected goals finished 0.7 to 0.7.

What was the final score in Israel vs Kosovo?

Israel 0–0 Kosovo, played on 01 Oct 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Israel 15%, the draw 21% and Kosovo 64%.

What were the stats in Israel vs Kosovo?

Full-time: Possession 45%–55%, Expected goals (xG) 0.7–0.7, Shots 10–18, Shots on target 3–3, Shots inside box 7–7, Big chances 3–0, Corners 4–5, Saves 3–3, Fouls 8–7, Offsides 2–0.

Did both teams score in Israel vs Kosovo?

No. It finished 0–0, so Israel failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 54% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Israel vs Kosovo right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Kosovo to win 64%, it finished Draw (21% called); Total goals — we said 3.1, it finished 0; Both teams to score — we said 54%, it finished No.

Around this fixture

All fixtures & results →Israel form →Kosovo form →