Belgium: Pro LeagueSunday 16 Aug, 16:30 UTC

KV Mechelen vStandard Liege

Most likely scoreline
1–1
12% of the time · 2.72 goals expected
KV Mechelen 41%Draw 31%Standard Liege 28%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
78%

Mechelen's 1.51 expected goals edge and 41% win probability give the hosts the slight upper hand, but Standard's 1.22 xG keeps this tight enough for Over 1.5 Goals to land at a robust 78% forecast.

How we get there
KV MechelenstepStandard Liege
1.33Base xG · rolling 26-match1.29
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.51Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.22
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
78%
Under 2.5 goals
52%
Over 3.5 goals
24%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

KV Mechelen average 4.3 corners per game at home this season (20 competitive matches). Standard Liege average 3.0 corners per game away from home this season (21 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
8
5
2
1
1
10
12
7
3
1
2
7
9
6
2
1
3
4
5
3
1
4
1
2
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

KV Mechelen fixtures & form →Standard Liege fixtures & form →

KV Mechelen vs Standard Liege — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between KV Mechelen and Standard Liege — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: KV Mechelen 41% · draw 31% · Standard Liege 28%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

KV Mechelen predictions & form →Standard Liege predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.