How it finished
Bulgaria beat Luxembourg 2–0. Bawler's model favoured Luxembourg at 45% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Bulgaria 27%. It forecast 2.6 goals and the match produced 2. Luxembourg had 18 shots (7 on target) to Bulgaria's 13 (5), with 63% of the ball against 37%. On expected goals it was 1.8 to 0.9, so Luxembourg created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 68%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Luxembourg vs Bulgaria?
Bulgaria beat Luxembourg 2–0. Bawler's model favoured Luxembourg at 45% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Bulgaria 27%. It forecast 2.6 goals and the match produced 2. Luxembourg had 18 shots (7 on target) to Bulgaria's 13 (5), with 63% of the ball against 37%. On expected goals it was 1.8 to 0.9, so Luxembourg created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Luxembourg vs Bulgaria?
Luxembourg 0–2 Bulgaria, played on 06 Oct 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Luxembourg 45%, the draw 27% and Bulgaria 27%.
What were the stats in Luxembourg vs Bulgaria?
Full-time: Possession 63%–37%, Expected goals (xG) 1.8–0.9, Shots 18–13, Shots on target 7–5, Shots inside box 11–10, Big chances 2–2, Corners 5–4, Saves 3–7, Fouls 15–15, Offsides 2–1, Yellow cards 1–3.
Did both teams score in Luxembourg vs Bulgaria?
No. It finished 0–2, so Luxembourg failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 52% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Luxembourg vs Bulgaria right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Luxembourg or draw 73%, it finished Bulgaria won (27% called); Total goals — we said 2.6, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 52%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 73%, it finished Landed.