Mexico vEcuador
Over 1.5 Goals hits 81% probability because combined xG of 2.80 and Mexico's 1.54 attacking threat—led by Giménez's 22% team shot share—overwhelms Ecuador's 1.25 defensive capacity.
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
Mexico average 5.0 corners per game at home this season (3 competitive matches). Ecuador average 6.7 corners per game this season (3 competitive matches).
Most likely to score or assist
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.
More predictions for these teams
Mexico vs Ecuador — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Mexico and Ecuador — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Mexico 41% · draw 31% · Ecuador 28%.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.