USA: MLSSaturday 01 Aug, 23:30 UTC

Red Bull New York vOrlando City SC

Most likely scoreline
21
9% of the time · 3.69 goals expected
Red Bull New York 50%Draw 25%Orlando City SC 25%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
85%

Over 1.5 Goals sits at 85% because Red Bull's 2.18 xG dominates Orlando's 1.52 in a fixture built for multiple tallies.

How we get there
Red Bull New YorkstepOrlando City SC
1.93Base xG · rolling 26-match1.61
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.18Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.52
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
85%
Orlando City SC or draw
28%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

New York Red Bulls average 4.6 corners per game at home this season (23 competitive matches). Orlando City average 4.5 corners per game away from home this season (25 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
2
4
3
1
1
1
5
8
6
3
1
2
6
9
7
3
1
3
4
6
5
2
1
4
2
4
3
1
1
5
1
2
1
1
6
1
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

New York Red Bulls vs Orlando City — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between New York Red Bulls and Orlando City — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: New York Red Bulls 50% · draw 25% · Orlando City 25%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Red Bull New York 32 Orlando City SC
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.