How it finished
Republic of Ireland and Israel drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Republic of Ireland at 75% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 17%. It forecast 3.0 goals; only 2 were scored. Republic of Ireland had 16 shots (4 on target) to Israel's 10 (2), with 55% of the ball against 45%. Expected goals finished 1.5 to 0.8.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 74%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Republic of Ireland vs Israel?
Republic of Ireland and Israel drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Republic of Ireland at 75% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 17%. It forecast 3.0 goals; only 2 were scored. Republic of Ireland had 16 shots (4 on target) to Israel's 10 (2), with 55% of the ball against 45%. Expected goals finished 1.5 to 0.8.
What was the final score in Republic of Ireland vs Israel?
Republic of Ireland 1–1 Israel, played on 04 Oct 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Republic of Ireland 75%, the draw 17% and Israel 8%.
What were the stats in Republic of Ireland vs Israel?
Full-time: Possession 55%–45%, Expected goals (xG) 1.5–0.8, Shots 16–10, Shots on target 4–2, Shots inside box 9–5, Big chances 1–1, Corners 3–3, Saves 1–3, Fouls 13–15, Offsides 1–2, Yellow cards 1–3.
Did both teams score in Republic of Ireland vs Israel?
Yes — both Republic of Ireland and Israel scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 44% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Republic of Ireland vs Israel right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Republic of Ireland to win 75%, it finished Draw (17% called); Total goals — we said 3.0, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 44%, it finished Yes.