PORTUGAL: Liga PortugalMonday 17 Aug, 19:15 UTC

Casa Pia vBenfica

Most likely scoreline
1–1
13% of the time · 2.50 goals expected
Casa Pia 27%Draw 34%Benfica 39%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
77%
How we get there
Casa PiastepBenfica
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
77%
Under 2.5 goals
54%
Draw
24%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Casa Pia average 3.6 corners per game at home this season (17 competitive matches). Benfica average 7.0 corners per game away from home this season (23 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Casa Pia fixtures & form →Benfica fixtures & form →

Casa Pia vs Benfica — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 6 April 2026, Casa Pia have won 0, Benfica have won 0, with 1 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
6 April 2026Casa Pia 1–1 BenficaPORTUGAL: Liga Portugal

The model's verdict for this fixture: Casa Pia 27% · draw 34% · Benfica 39%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

Casa Pia predictions & form →Benfica predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.