Casa Pia vs Benfica prediction — Liga Portugal · Mon 17 Aug · 20:15 UK

Liga Portugal · Mon 17 Aug · 20:15 UK
Casa Pia 27Draw 34Benfica 39
Our call before kickoff
73%
Benfica or draw
Landed
2.4
Goals expected
Full time
Final 0–7
Both teams score (before kick-off)
48%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
43%

How it finished

Benfica beat Casa Pia 7–0. Bawler's model had Benfica in front at 39% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.4 goals; the match produced 7. Casa Pia had 3 shots (0 on target) to Benfica's 20 (8), with 36% of the ball against 64%. Expected goals finished 0.1 to 3.0.

Casa PiaFull-time statsBenfica
36%Possession64%
0.1Expected goals (xG)3.0
3Shots20
0Shots on target8
2Shots inside box14
1Big chances5
1Corners3
2Saves0
11Fouls13
1Offsides4
3Yellow cards0
1Red cards0
What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callBenfica or draw 73%Benfica won (39% called)
Total goals2.47
Both teams to score48%No
Graded pickOver 1.5 goals 77%Landed
Second pickUnder 2.5 goals 54%Missed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

Casa PiaBenfica
1.1
Goals+0.3
1.3

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability
Under 3.5 goals78%
Benfica to score73%
Over 1.5 goals69%
Casa Pia to score66%

No first-half forecast for this fixture.

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (home minus away)-0.3 / match
Head-to-head, last 5Casa Pia 1 · Draws 2 · Benfica 2
Benfica in their league tableTop quarter

Head to head

Apr 2026Casa Pia AC 1–1 Benfica
Nov 2025Benfica 2–2 Casa Pia AC
Jan 2025Casa Pia AC 3–1 Benfica
Aug 2024Benfica 3–0 Casa Pia AC
Mar 2024Casa Pia AC 0–1 Benfica
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Casa Pia vs Benfica?

Benfica beat Casa Pia 7–0. Bawler's model had Benfica in front at 39% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.4 goals; the match produced 7. Casa Pia had 3 shots (0 on target) to Benfica's 20 (8), with 36% of the ball against 64%. Expected goals finished 0.1 to 3.0.

What was the final score in Casa Pia vs Benfica?

Casa Pia 0–7 Benfica, played on 17 Aug 2026 in the PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal. Bawler's model had gone into it with Casa Pia 27%, the draw 34% and Benfica 39%.

What were the stats in Casa Pia vs Benfica?

Full-time: Possession 36%–64%, Expected goals (xG) 0.1–3.0, Shots 3–20, Shots on target 0–8, Shots inside box 2–14, Big chances 1–5, Corners 1–3, Saves 2–0, Fouls 11–13, Offsides 1–4, Yellow cards 3–0, Red cards 1–0.

Did both teams score in Casa Pia vs Benfica?

No. It finished 0–7, so Casa Pia failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 48% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Casa Pia vs Benfica right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Benfica or draw 73%, it finished Benfica won (39% called); Total goals — we said 2.4, it finished 7; Both teams to score — we said 48%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 77%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Under 2.5 goals 54%, it finished Missed.

Around this fixture

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