Bawler / ENGLAND: Championship / Birmingham
Team profile

Birmingham Prediction

Per-game numbers from 51 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
13.1
a game
11.9 faced
On target
3.9
a game
3.9 faced
Goals
1.2 – 1.2
scored – conceded
a game, 51 matches
Next match
55%
Birmingham win chance
vs Bristol City · Sat 22 Aug 11:30

Birmingham prediction: for Birmingham's next match — Birmingham vs Bristol City on Saturday 22 Aug, 11:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Birmingham win looks most likely (55%).

Birmingham sit close to the Championship average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.20 expected goals a game and conceding 1.22. Their finishing has lagged the chances they make — 0.57 goals a game against 1.20 expected. Next up is Bristol City, where the model makes them clear favourites at 55%.

Birmingham in numbers

51 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.2
Goals · per game
let in 1.2
Home 1.7Away 0.8
5.5
Corners · per game
give up 4.6
Home 6.4Away 4.7
13.1
Shots · per game
faced 11.9
Home 17.0Away 9.7
3.9
On target · per game
faced 3.9
Home 5.5Away 2.6
Last 6 games
16 Aug
2-3
@ Colorado Springs
0-12
15 Aug
0-0
@ Sheffield United
8-2
08 Aug
1-0
@ Swansea
4-6
03 Aug
1-0
vs Rhode Island
3-13
30 Jul
1-2
@ Louisville City
1-10
02 May
1-1
@ Portsmouth
9-3

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs Bristol City · Saturday 22 Aug, 11:30 UTC

Win
55%
Birmingham
Draw
29%
Loss
16%
Bristol City
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Birmingham compare with the ENGLAND: Championship average, per match.

Goals for
1.20
Below average
Goals against
1.22
Tighter than most
Record
1W 3D 3L
7 settled
Real goals
0.6 – 0.9
For / against, per match
Scored1.20
Conceded1.22

The grey line on each bar is the ENGLAND: Championship average (1.27 scored, 1.28 conceded).

What the data says
Tough market: Goals (Over/Under)
Birmingham matches give the model a harder read here — 1/4 (25%) correct. Treat forecasts in this market as less reliable.

How Bawler has done on Birmingham

43%
of high-confidence calls correct — 3 of 7, below the ~65% baseline — a hard team to read
Goals (Over/Under)25%1/4
Result67%2/3

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Later fixtures

Tue 25 Augvs Brentford

Recent matches (last 7)

Sat 15 Aug@ Sheffield United
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 08 Aug@ Swansea City
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 02 May@ Portsmouth
High confidence: X2
Sat 18 Apr@ Hull
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Mon 06 Apr@ Ipswich
High confidence: 1X
Fri 03 Aprvs Blackburn
High confidence: 1X
Sat 21 Mar@ Derby
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

More on Birmingham and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly