Who will win Tottenham Hotspur vs Charlton Athletic?

Bawler's model rates this match: Tottenham Hotspur are favoured (56% win probability vs 15% for Charlton Athletic, 29% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Tottenham Hotspur vs Charlton Athletic?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Tottenham Hotspur 1-0 Charlton Athletic (13.8% probability). Expected total goals: 2.53.

How does Bawler predict Tottenham Hotspur vs Charlton Athletic?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Tottenham Hotspur 56%, the draw 29% and Charlton Athletic 15%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Tottenham Hotspur vs Charlton Athletic?

BTTS: No (55% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 1.73 and away expected goals 0.80.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Tottenham Hotspur vs Charlton Athletic?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.53. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

England: EFL CupWednesday 26 Aug, 18:45 UTC

Tottenham Hotspur vCharlton Athletic

Most likely scoreline

1–0

14% of the time · 2.53 goals expected

Tottenham Hotspur 56%Draw 29%Charlton Athletic 15%

How we get there

Tottenham Hotspurstep

Charlton Athletic

1.73Base xG · rolling 26-match0.80

no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob

1.73Final goal estimate — what the model uses0.80

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

Tottenham average 6.0 corners per game at home this season (24 competitive matches). Charlton average 3.2 corners per game away from home this season (25 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate

home windrawaway win

Team news — absences and latest club updates· as of 16 Aug 2026

SpursHome

Unavailable / doubtful

Xavi Simons — Ruptured anterior cruciate ligament, right knee, sustained 25 April 2026 v Wolves; surgery early May. Ruled out at least seven months
Expected return: reports differ — 'at least seven months' implies approximately December 2026; Transfermarkt lists 20 February…
Wilson Odobert — Cruciate ligament tear
Expected return: 28 November 2026 (Transfermarkt)
Dejan Kulusevski — Knee cartilage; out 13+ months and missed the ENTIRE 2025/26 season. Sweden's team doctor said the injury is 'in a tricky spot' and 'is not recovering quickly enough due…
Expected return: No timeline given
Mohammed Kudus — Quadriceps/thigh tendon injury sustained January 2026 and aggravated in April (one source describes it as a hamstring); missed the second half of 2025/26
Expected return: Imminent - De Zerbi, 26 July 2026: 'Kudus is very close, I think.
Cristian Romero — Muscular leg problem sustained for Argentina in the 2026 World Cup final v Spain on 19 July, forced off before the second hydration break.
Expected return: No timeline given

+9 more absences reported

Latest updates

16 Aug · Departure
Cristian Romero move to Atletico Madrid completed and unveiled
The Tottenham captain's £34.2m switch was finalised on 15 Aug, with Romero signing a contract until 30 June 2031 and being unveiled by Atletico.
16 Aug · Departure
Djed Spence completes £30m move to Inter Milan on five-year deal
The move announced as agreed earlier in the week was formally completed on 15 Aug, with Spence signing a five-year contract at Inter after passing his medical on the Friday.

Club news is gathered once a day from club statements and reporting, last on 16 Aug 2026. It is not a confirmed team sheet — squads are named about an hour before kick-off, after this page was built, so late fitness news may not appear above.

Predicted lineups — expected XI, not a confirmed team sheet

SpursHome4-2-3-1
Goalkeeper
GKAntonin Kinsky
Defence
RBPedro PorroCBJan Paul van HeckeCBMicky van de VenLBAndy Robertson
Midfield
CMSandro TonaliCMMateus FernandesAMJames Maddison
Attack
RWMohammed KudusLWMathys TelSTDominic Solanke
Selection doubts
·GOALKEEPER (the most live battle in the squad): Antonin Kinsky started the survival-clinching final day of 2025/26, signed a new deal to 2032 on 30 June, and Tribal Football, Italpress and Football…
·CENTRE-BACK: Jan Paul van Hecke (£52m) and Micky van de Ven are the likeliest pair, but Marcos Senesi (free) is on extended post-World Cup leave, captain Cristian Romero picked up a muscular injury…

Our projected starting elevens from squad news as of 30 July 2026 — not team sheets. Clubs confirm their starting elevens around an hour before kick-off, after this page was built. Only one side in this fixture is covered by our squad dossiers.

Fantasy angle — top FPL picks in this fixture (2026/27 projections)

Van HeckeTOT · DEF · £5.0m3.4 pts

TonaliTOT · MID · £5.5m2.9 pts

TelTOT · MID · £6.0m2.7 pts

All projected points →

More predictions for these teams

Tottenham Hotspur fixtures & form →

Charlton Athletic fixtures & form →

Tottenham vs Charlton — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Tottenham and Charlton — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Tottenham 56% · draw 29% · Charlton 15%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

Tottenham predictions & form →Charlton predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →

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Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.