How it finished
England beat Croatia 7–0. Bawler's model had England in front at 62% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.3 goals; the match produced 7. Croatia had 12 shots (1 on target) to England's 19 (10), with 36% of the ball against 64%. Expected goals finished 1.4 to 6.1.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 77%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Croatia vs England?
England beat Croatia 7–0. Bawler's model had England in front at 62% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.3 goals; the match produced 7. Croatia had 12 shots (1 on target) to England's 19 (10), with 36% of the ball against 64%. Expected goals finished 1.4 to 6.1.
What was the final score in Croatia vs England?
Croatia 0–7 England, played on 03 Oct 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Croatia 18%, the draw 21% and England 62%.
What were the stats in Croatia vs England?
Full-time: Possession 36%–64%, Expected goals (xG) 1.4–6.1, Shots 12–19, Shots on target 1–10, Shots inside box 5–16, Big chances 1–11, Corners 1–6, Saves 3–1, Fouls 10–6, Offsides 0–2, Yellow cards 1–0.
Did both teams score in Croatia vs England?
No. It finished 0–7, so Croatia failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 59% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Croatia vs England right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said England to win 62%, it finished England won (62% called); Total goals — we said 3.3, it finished 7; Both teams to score — we said 59%, it finished No.