Marseille vs Strasbourg prediction — Ligue 1 · Fri 21 Aug · 19:45 UK

Ligue 1 · Fri 21 Aug · 19:45 UK
Marseille 45Draw 25Strasbourg 30
Our call before kickoff
70%
Marseille or draw
Landed
3.1
Goals expected
Full time
Final 4–0
Both teams score (before kick-off)
62%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
60%

How it finished

Marseille beat Strasbourg 4–0. Bawler's model had Marseille in front at 45% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.1 goals; the match produced 4. Marseille had 14 shots (8 on target) to Strasbourg's 5 (2), with 67% of the ball against 33%. Expected goals finished 1.9 to 0.2.

MarseilleFull-time statsStrasbourg
67%Possession33%
1.9Expected goals (xG)0.2
14Shots5
8Shots on target2
9Shots inside box3
3Big chances0
3Corners4
2Saves4
6Fouls12
0Offsides0
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards1
What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callMarseille or draw 70%Marseille won (45% called)
Total goals3.14
Both teams to score62%No
Graded pickOver 1.5 goals 82%Landed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

MarseilleStrasbourg
1.7
Goals+0.3
1.4

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability
Marseille to score82%
Over 1.5 goals82%
Strasbourg to score75%
Under 3.5 goals62%

No first-half forecast for this fixture.

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (home minus away)+0.3 / match
Head-to-head, last 5Marseille 1 · Draws 3 · Strasbourg 1
Strasbourg in their league tableLower half

Head to head

Feb 2026Marseille 2–2 Strasbourg
Sept 2025Strasbourg 1–2 Marseille
Jan 2025Marseille 1–1 Strasbourg
Sept 2024Strasbourg 1–0 Marseille
Jan 2024Marseille 1–1 Strasbourg
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Marseille vs Strasbourg?

Marseille beat Strasbourg 4–0. Bawler's model had Marseille in front at 45% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.1 goals; the match produced 4. Marseille had 14 shots (8 on target) to Strasbourg's 5 (2), with 67% of the ball against 33%. Expected goals finished 1.9 to 0.2.

What was the final score in Marseille vs Strasbourg?

Marseille 4–0 Strasbourg, played on 21 Aug 2026 in the FRANCE: Ligue 1. Bawler's model had gone into it with Marseille 45%, the draw 25% and Strasbourg 30%.

What were the stats in Marseille vs Strasbourg?

Full-time: Possession 67%–33%, Expected goals (xG) 1.9–0.2, Shots 14–5, Shots on target 8–2, Shots inside box 9–3, Big chances 3–0, Corners 3–4, Saves 2–4, Fouls 6–12, Offsides 0–0, Yellow cards 1–2, Red cards 0–1.

Did both teams score in Marseille vs Strasbourg?

No. It finished 4–0, so Strasbourg failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 62% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Marseille vs Strasbourg right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Marseille or draw 70%, it finished Marseille won (45% called); Total goals — we said 3.1, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 62%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 82%, it finished Landed.

Around this fixture

Ligue 1 table →
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