Spain: La LigaSunday 23 Aug, 15:00 UTC

Atlético Madrid vVillarreal

Most likely scoreline
1–1
10% of the time · 2.99 goals expected
Atlético Madrid 51%Draw 28%Villarreal 22%
How we get there
Atlético MadridstepVillarreal
1.98Base xG · rolling 26-match1.01
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.98Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.01

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

Atlético Madrid average 7.0 corners per game at home this season (27 competitive matches). Villarreal average 2.9 corners per game away from home this season (23 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
5
3
1
1
10
10
5
2
2
10
10
5
2
3
7
7
3
1
4
3
3
2
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Atlético Madrid fixtures & form →Villarreal fixtures & form →

Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 24 May 2026, Atlético Madrid have won 0, Villarreal have won 1, with 0 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
24 May 2026Villarreal 5–1 Atlético MadridSpain: La Liga

The model's verdict for this fixture: Atlético Madrid 51% · draw 28% · Villarreal 22%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

Atlético Madrid predictions & form →Villarreal predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.