How it finished
Denmark beat Wales 1–0. Bawler's model had Denmark in front at 60% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.1 goals; only 1 was scored. Wales had 5 shots (1 on target) to Denmark's 13 (4), with 56% of the ball against 44%. Expected goals finished 0.2 to 2.2.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 75%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Wales vs Denmark?
Denmark beat Wales 1–0. Bawler's model had Denmark in front at 60% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.1 goals; only 1 was scored. Wales had 5 shots (1 on target) to Denmark's 13 (4), with 56% of the ball against 44%. Expected goals finished 0.2 to 2.2.
What was the final score in Wales vs Denmark?
Wales 0–1 Denmark, played on 04 Oct 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Wales 18%, the draw 22% and Denmark 60%.
What were the stats in Wales vs Denmark?
Full-time: Possession 56%–44%, Expected goals (xG) 0.2–2.2, Shots 5–13, Shots on target 1–4, Shots inside box 3–10, Big chances 0–4, Corners 3–3, Saves 3–1, Fouls 11–9, Offsides 0–3, Yellow cards 3–0.
Did both teams score in Wales vs Denmark?
No. It finished 0–1, so Wales failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 57% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Wales vs Denmark right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Denmark to win 60%, it finished Denmark won (60% called); Total goals — we said 3.1, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 57%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 82%, it finished Missed.