How it finished
Wales beat Norway 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Norway at 79% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Wales 7%. It forecast 3.4 goals and the match produced 3. Wales had 12 shots (6 on target) to Norway's 12 (4), with 50% of the ball against 50%. On expected goals it was 1.0 to 1.3, so Norway created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 78%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Wales vs Norway?
Wales beat Norway 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Norway at 79% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Wales 7%. It forecast 3.4 goals and the match produced 3. Wales had 12 shots (6 on target) to Norway's 12 (4), with 50% of the ball against 50%. On expected goals it was 1.0 to 1.3, so Norway created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Wales vs Norway?
Wales 2–1 Norway, played on 01 Oct 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Wales 7%, the draw 14% and Norway 79%.
What were the stats in Wales vs Norway?
Full-time: Possession 50%–50%, Expected goals (xG) 1.0–1.3, Shots 12–12, Shots on target 6–4, Shots inside box 7–7, Big chances 2–2, Corners 3–3, Saves 3–4, Fouls 11–7, Offsides 3–0, Yellow cards 3–1, Red cards 0–1.
Did both teams score in Wales vs Norway?
Yes — both Wales and Norway scored, finishing 2–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 47% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Wales vs Norway right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Norway to win 79%, it finished Wales won (7% called); Total goals — we said 3.4, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 47%, it finished Yes.