How it finished
Portugal beat Wales 1–0. Bawler's model had Portugal in front at 89% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.7 goals; only 1 was scored. Portugal had 23 shots (5 on target) to Wales' 5 (1), with 61% of the ball against 39%. Expected goals finished 2.4 to 0.9.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 80%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Portugal vs Wales?
Portugal beat Wales 1–0. Bawler's model had Portugal in front at 89% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.7 goals; only 1 was scored. Portugal had 23 shots (5 on target) to Wales' 5 (1), with 61% of the ball against 39%. Expected goals finished 2.4 to 0.9.
What was the final score in Portugal vs Wales?
Portugal 1–0 Wales, played on 24 Sept 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Portugal 89%, the draw 9% and Wales 3%.
What were the stats in Portugal vs Wales?
Full-time: Possession 61%–39%, Expected goals (xG) 2.4–0.9, Shots 23–5, Shots on target 5–1, Shots inside box 17–5, Big chances 1–2, Corners 10–2, Saves 0–4, Fouls 12–10, Offsides 3–3, Yellow cards 0–1.
Did both teams score in Portugal vs Wales?
No. It finished 1–0, so Wales failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 36% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Portugal vs Wales right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Portugal to win 89%, it finished Portugal won (89% called); Total goals — we said 3.7, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 36%, it finished No; Second pick — we said Over 3.5 goals 50%, it finished Missed.