Netherlands: EredivisieSunday 16 Aug, 14:45 UTC

Ajax Amsterdam vHeerenveen

Most likely scoreline
2–1
10% of the time · 3.19 goals expected
Ajax Amsterdam 57%Draw 25%Heerenveen 17%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
88%

Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 88%, underpinned by Ajax's dominant 2.10 xG versus Heerenveen's 1.09, a one-goal gap that striker Wout Weghorst (26% of team xG) figures centrally in creating.

How we get there
Ajax AmsterdamstepHeerenveen
1.86Base xG · rolling 26-match1.16
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.10Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.09
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
88%
Heerenveen or draw
23%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Ajax average 5.6 corners per game at home this season (23 competitive matches). Heerenveen average 5.2 corners per game away from home this season (18 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
4
4
2
1
1
9
9
5
2
1
2
9
10
5
2
1
3
6
7
4
1
4
3
4
2
1
5
1
2
1
6
1
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Ajax Amsterdam fixtures & form →Heerenveen fixtures & form →

Ajax vs Heerenveen — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 17 May 2026, Ajax have won 0, Heerenveen have won 0, with 1 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
17 May 2026Heerenveen 0–0 AjaxNetherlands: Eredivisie

The model's verdict for this fixture: Ajax 57% · draw 25% · Heerenveen 17%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

Ajax predictions & form →Heerenveen predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.