Ajax Amsterdam vs Heerenveen prediction — Eredivisie · Sun 16 Aug · 15:45 UK

Eredivisie · Sun 16 Aug · 15:45 UK
Ajax Amsterdam 57Draw 25Heerenveen 17
Our call before kickoff
83%
Ajax Amsterdam or draw
Landed
3.2
Goals expected
Full time
Final 2–2
Both teams score (before kick-off)
58%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
62%

How it finished

Ajax Amsterdam and Heerenveen drew 2–2. Bawler's model favoured Ajax Amsterdam at 57% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 25%. It forecast 3.2 goals; the match produced 4. Ajax Amsterdam had 23 shots (4 on target) to Heerenveen's 14 (8), with 54% of the ball against 46%.

Ajax…Full-time statsHeerenveen
54%Possession46%
23Shots14
4Shots on target8
7Corners2
6Saves4
8Fouls10
2Offsides3
3Yellow cards1
What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callAjax Amsterdam or draw 83%Draw (25% called)
Total goals3.24
Both teams to score58%Yes
Graded pickOver 1.5 goals 88%Landed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

Ajax AmsterdamHeerenveen
2.1
Goals+1.0
1.1

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability
Ajax Amsterdam to score88%
Over 1.5 goals83%
Heerenveen to score67%
Over 2.5 goals62%

No first-half forecast for this fixture.

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (home minus away)+1.0 / match
Head-to-head, last 5Ajax Amsterdam 2 · Draws 2 · Heerenveen 1
Heerenveen in their league tableLower half

Head to head

May 2026SC Heerenveen 0–0 Ajax
Nov 2025Ajax 1–1 SC Heerenveen
Jan 2025SC Heerenveen 0–2 Ajax
Aug 2024Ajax 1–0 SC Heerenveen
Feb 2024SC Heerenveen 3–2 Ajax
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Ajax Amsterdam vs Heerenveen?

Ajax Amsterdam and Heerenveen drew 2–2. Bawler's model favoured Ajax Amsterdam at 57% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 25%. It forecast 3.2 goals; the match produced 4. Ajax Amsterdam had 23 shots (4 on target) to Heerenveen's 14 (8), with 54% of the ball against 46%.

What was the final score in Ajax Amsterdam vs Heerenveen?

Ajax Amsterdam 2–2 Heerenveen, played on 16 Aug 2026 in the Netherlands: Eredivisie. Bawler's model had gone into it with Ajax Amsterdam 57%, the draw 25% and Heerenveen 17%.

What were the stats in Ajax Amsterdam vs Heerenveen?

Full-time: Possession 54%–46%, Shots 23–14, Shots on target 4–8, Corners 7–2, Saves 6–4, Fouls 8–10, Offsides 2–3, Yellow cards 3–1.

Did both teams score in Ajax Amsterdam vs Heerenveen?

Yes — both Ajax Amsterdam and Heerenveen scored, finishing 2–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 58% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Ajax Amsterdam vs Heerenveen right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Ajax Amsterdam or draw 83%, it finished Draw (25% called); Total goals — we said 3.2, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 58%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 88%, it finished Landed.

Around this fixture

Eredivisie table →
All fixtures & results →Ajax Amsterdam form →Heerenveen form →