Arsenal v
Coventry City
ArsenalstepCoventry CityEarly projection
These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.
Arsenal average 5.9 corners per game at home this season (27 competitive matches). Coventry average 4.7 corners per game away from home this season (23 competitive matches).
Team news — absences and latest club updates· as of 16 Aug 2026
- William Saliba — Back injury sustained on France duty at the 2026 World Cup (substituted in first half of the semi-final defeat to Spain).Expected return: No date given by club; widely reported to miss the opening weeks of the season, i.e. unavailable for GW1 on 21…
- Jurrien Timber — Groin injury carried over from the end of 2025/26; missed the World Cup. Left the Spain pre-season camp to return to London, but sources stress this was a planned…Expected return: Targeting fitness for the start of the Premier League season; unconfirmed
- 16 Aug · ManagerArteta relaxed over contract talks, says he and Arsenal board are alignedSpeaking before the Community Shield, Arteta addressed entering the final year of his deal: "They don't have to worry about any of that, because I want to be here.
- 16 Aug · ReturnArteta confirms Saka, Rice and Zubimendi available for Community ShieldArteta said of the three World Cup returnees: "They will be available, they trained with us today, they will train tomorrow and if they are in the condition that we expect them to be, they…
- 13 Aug · SigningCoventry re-sign Gustavo Hamer from Sheffield United for around £6mCoventry officially confirmed Hamer's return on 11 August on a long-term contract, fee reported at roughly £6m (c.€7m) after two earlier bids were rejected.
- 13 Aug · ManagerLampard backs Haji Wright as his No.9 for the Premier League amid West Ham linksIn an interview published 12 August, Frank Lampard said of Wright: "I felt quite quickly that he's a No. 9 and he prefers to be in that position too... with his speed, size and ability to…
Club news is gathered once a day from club statements and reporting, last on 16 Aug 2026. It is not a confirmed team sheet — squads are named about an hour before kick-off, after this page was built, so late fitness news may not appear above.
Predicted lineups — expected XI, not a confirmed team sheet
- Centre-back alongside Gabriel: Cristhian Mosquera vs Piero Hincapie while William Saliba is out.
- Right-back: Ben White vs Jurrien Timber, dependent on Timber's groin recovery.
- LOW CONFIDENCE XI - no beat reporter has published a predicted lineup, and both friendlies so far were rotation-heavy (Coventry fielded two different outfield sides vs AFC Wimbledon)
- Left wing: Tatsuhiro Sakamoto vs Ephron Mason-Clark, with the £20m Tchaouna's arrival squeezing the wide areas
Our projected starting elevens from squad news as of 30 July 2026 — not team sheets. Clubs confirm their starting elevens around an hour before kick-off, after this page was built.
Fantasy angle — top FPL picks in this fixture (2026/27 projections)
GabrielARS · DEF · £8.0m5.1 pts
RayaARS · GKP · £6.0m3.8 pts
RiceARS · MID · £7.5m3.6 ptsMore predictions for these teams
Arsenal vs Coventry — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Arsenal and Coventry — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Arsenal 76% · draw 16% · Coventry 8%.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.