How it finished
Belarus beat San Marino 4–0. Bawler's model had Belarus in front at 95% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 4.3 goals and the match produced 4. Belarus had 15 shots (5 on target) to San Marino's 10 (4), with 60% of the ball against 40%. Expected goals finished 1.1 to 0.8.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 85%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Belarus vs San Marino?
Belarus beat San Marino 4–0. Bawler's model had Belarus in front at 95% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 4.3 goals and the match produced 4. Belarus had 15 shots (5 on target) to San Marino's 10 (4), with 60% of the ball against 40%. Expected goals finished 1.1 to 0.8.
What was the final score in Belarus vs San Marino?
Belarus 4–0 San Marino, played on 03 Oct 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Belarus 95%, the draw 4% and San Marino 1%.
What were the stats in Belarus vs San Marino?
Full-time: Possession 60%–40%, Expected goals (xG) 1.1–0.8, Shots 15–10, Shots on target 5–4, Shots inside box 8–5, Big chances 2–2, Corners 6–4, Saves 4–1, Fouls 16–20, Offsides 0–1, Yellow cards 3–5.
Did both teams score in Belarus vs San Marino?
No. It finished 4–0, so San Marino failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 29% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Belarus vs San Marino right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Belarus to win 95%, it finished Belarus won (95% called); Total goals — we said 4.3, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 29%, it finished No.