How it finished
Bosnia-Herzegovina beat Poland 1–0. Bawler's model had Bosnia-Herzegovina in front at 39% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals; only 1 was scored. Bosnia-Herzegovina had 9 shots (1 on target) to Poland's 18 (4), with 44% of the ball against 56%. On expected goals it was 1.2 to 1.6, so Poland created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 71%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Poland?
Bosnia-Herzegovina beat Poland 1–0. Bawler's model had Bosnia-Herzegovina in front at 39% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals; only 1 was scored. Bosnia-Herzegovina had 9 shots (1 on target) to Poland's 18 (4), with 44% of the ball against 56%. On expected goals it was 1.2 to 1.6, so Poland created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Poland?
Bosnia-Herzegovina 1–0 Poland, played on 05 Oct 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Bosnia-Herzegovina 39%, the draw 27% and Poland 34%.
What were the stats in Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Poland?
Full-time: Possession 44%–56%, Expected goals (xG) 1.2–1.6, Shots 9–18, Shots on target 1–4, Shots inside box 5–10, Big chances 1–2, Corners 2–8, Saves 4–1, Fouls 12–7, Offsides 4–1, Yellow cards 3–3.
Did both teams score in Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Poland?
No. It finished 1–0, so Poland failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 57% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Poland right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Bosnia-Herzegovina or draw 66%, it finished Bosnia-Herzegovina won (39% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 57%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 77%, it finished Missed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 53%, it finished Missed.