How it finished
Finland beat Albania 2–1. Bawler's model had Finland in front at 44% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.3 goals and the match produced 3. Finland had 11 shots (3 on target) to Albania's 13 (5), with 60% of the ball against 40%. On expected goals it was 0.5 to 1.0, so Albania created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 65%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Finland vs Albania?
Finland beat Albania 2–1. Bawler's model had Finland in front at 44% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.3 goals and the match produced 3. Finland had 11 shots (3 on target) to Albania's 13 (5), with 60% of the ball against 40%. On expected goals it was 0.5 to 1.0, so Albania created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Finland vs Albania?
Finland 2–1 Albania, played on 03 Oct 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Finland 44%, the draw 29% and Albania 27%.
What were the stats in Finland vs Albania?
Full-time: Possession 60%–40%, Expected goals (xG) 0.5–1.0, Shots 11–13, Shots on target 3–5, Shots inside box 3–11, Big chances 0–1, Corners 7–6, Saves 4–1, Fouls 13–10, Offsides 1–3, Yellow cards 1–3, Red cards 0–1.
Did both teams score in Finland vs Albania?
Yes — both Finland and Albania scored, finishing 2–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 47% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Finland vs Albania right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Finland or draw 73%, it finished Finland won (44% called); Total goals — we said 2.3, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 47%, it finished Yes.