How it finished
Moldova beat Kazakhstan 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Kazakhstan at 71% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Moldova 10%. It forecast 3.0 goals and the match produced 3. Kazakhstan had 19 shots (4 on target) to Moldova's 16 (8), with 65% of the ball against 35%. On expected goals it was 1.1 to 0.9, so Kazakhstan created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 74%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Kazakhstan vs Moldova?
Moldova beat Kazakhstan 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Kazakhstan at 71% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Moldova 10%. It forecast 3.0 goals and the match produced 3. Kazakhstan had 19 shots (4 on target) to Moldova's 16 (8), with 65% of the ball against 35%. On expected goals it was 1.1 to 0.9, so Kazakhstan created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Kazakhstan vs Moldova?
Kazakhstan 1–2 Moldova, played on 02 Oct 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Kazakhstan 71%, the draw 19% and Moldova 10%.
What were the stats in Kazakhstan vs Moldova?
Full-time: Possession 65%–35%, Expected goals (xG) 1.1–0.9, Shots 19–16, Shots on target 4–8, Shots inside box 10–9, Big chances 3–0, Corners 11–4, Saves 6–2, Fouls 10–10, Offsides 0–1, Yellow cards 2–0.
Did both teams score in Kazakhstan vs Moldova?
Yes — both Kazakhstan and Moldova scored, finishing 1–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 48% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Kazakhstan vs Moldova right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Kazakhstan to win 71%, it finished Moldova won (10% called); Total goals — we said 3.0, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 48%, it finished Yes.