Who will win Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United?

Bawler's model rates this match: Nottingham Forest are favoured (49% win probability vs 22% for Leeds United, 29% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Nottingham Forest 1-1 Leeds United (11.0% probability). Expected total goals: 2.89.

How does Bawler predict Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Nottingham Forest 49%, the draw 29% and Leeds United 22%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United?

BTTS: Yes (56% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.77 and away expected goals 1.12.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.89. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

England: EFL CupTuesday 25 Aug, 19:00 UTC

Nottingham Forest vLeeds United

Most likely scoreline

1–1

11% of the time · 2.89 goals expected

Nottingham Forest 49%Draw 29%Leeds United 22%

How we get there

Nottingham ForeststepLeeds United

1.77Base xG · rolling 26-match1.12

no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob

1.77Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.12

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

Nott'm Forest average 6.1 corners per game at home this season (27 competitive matches). Leeds average 3.4 corners per game away from home this season (23 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate

home windrawaway win

Team news — absences and latest club updates· as of 16 Aug 2026

Nott'm ForestHome

Unavailable / doubtful

Murillo — Hamstring
Expected return: Early August 2026 (FotMob). Glasner said in July he is back doing rehab sessions with intensity being…
Callum Hudson-Odoi — Muscle/thigh - the injury required surgery and ended his 2025/26 season early
Expected return: Early August 2026 (FotMob)
Nicolo Savona — Knee
Expected return: Early August 2026 (FotMob)
Ola Aina — Knock - listed as doubtful by FotMob
Expected return: Unclear - he started the 18 July friendly as a wing-back, so this flag may be stale or may post-date that game

Latest updates

16 Aug · Departure
Forest agree Awoniyi sale to Coventry, striker undergoing medical
Nottingham Forest and Coventry City reached a club-to-club agreement on 15 August for a permanent transfer of Taiwo Awoniyi, with the medical reported as ongoing.
13 Aug · Signing
Forest sign Ivory Coast centre-back Ousmane Diomande from Sporting for £34m
Forest confirmed the signing of 22-year-old Ousmane Diomande from Sporting CP on 11 August for a reported £34m, on a four-year deal with the option of a further year.

LeedsAway

Unavailable / doubtful

Ilia Gruev — Meniscus/knee injury sustained mid-April 2026
Expected return: Still rehabilitating and described as 'nowhere close to returning'.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin — Minor pre-season setback; training alone
Expected return: Being monitored; did not play v Wrexham. No date given
Jaka Bijol — Training knock
Expected return: Minor — had a chance of featuring v Sunderland on 30 July
Sebastiaan Bornauw — Minor fitness issue
Expected return: Minor — could feature v Sunderland on 30 July
Noah Okafor — NOT injured — on an extended break after reaching the World Cup quarter-finals with Switzerland
Expected return: Missed the US tour; behind on pre-season conditioning

Latest updates

16 Aug · Departure
Joe Gelhardt completes permanent move to Hull City
Leeds confirmed Gelhardt has joined Hull City permanently for an undisclosed fee on a four-year contract, ending a six-year stint at Elland Road.
16 Aug · Injury
Farke says Gudmundsson may miss the Forest opener after Chicago hamstring injury
Developing the earlier scan story: Farke confirmed ahead of the Augsburg friendly that Gudmundsson remains sidelined and might miss the season opener at Nottingham Forest.

Club news is gathered once a day from club statements and reporting, last on 16 Aug 2026. It is not a confirmed team sheet — squads are named about an hour before kick-off, after this page was built, so late fitness news may not appear above.

Predicted lineups — expected XI, not a confirmed team sheet

Nott'm ForestHome3-4-2-1
Goalkeeper
GKMatz Sels
Defence
CBJair CunhaCBNikola MilenkovicCBMoratoWBNeco WilliamsWBOla Aina
Midfield
CMRyan YatesCMJames McAteeAMOmari HutchinsonAMMorgan Gibbs-White
Attack
STIgor Jesus
Selection doubts
·This XI is Glasner's actual first Forest team sheet (v Notts County, 18 July 2026): Sels behind a back three of Jair Cunha, Milenkovic and Morato, with Aina and Neco Williams as the wing-backs, Yat…
·Back three, right side: Ousmane Diomande (deal agreed 30 July, EUR 40m) is reported as arriving specifically to play right centre-back in the three, which would displace Jair Cunha or Zach Abbott.

LeedsAway4-2-3-1
Goalkeeper
GKJames Trafford (if the transfer completes) — otherwise Lucas Perri
Defence
RBJayden BogleCBJaka BijolCBJoe RodonLBGabriel Gudmundsson — or James Justin
Midfield
CMEthan Ampadu (captain)CMAnton StachAMAo Tanaka — or Brenden Aaronson
Attack
RWHarry WilsonLWDaniel James — or Wilfried Gnonto / Largie RamazaniSTDominic Calvert-Lewin (fitness-dependent) — or Lukas Nmecha / Joel Piroe
Selection doubts
·Goalkeeper is the biggest one: Trafford's £40m move is agreed but unannounced; Lucas Perri had an unconvincing debut season and has been linked with Torino; Alex Cairns started pre-season
·Centre-back: Bijol, Rodon, Muharemovic and Bornauw for two places, all four with fitness or integration questions

Our projected starting elevens from squad news as of 30 July 2026 — not team sheets. Clubs confirm their starting elevens around an hour before kick-off, after this page was built.

Fantasy angle — top FPL picks in this fixture (2026/27 projections)

Gibbs-WhiteNFO · MID · £8.0m3.9 pts

Calvert-LewinLEE · FWD · £6.0m3.4 pts

StachLEE · MID · £6.0m3.2 pts

All projected points →

More predictions for these teams

Nottingham Forest fixtures & form →Leeds United fixtures & form →

Nott'm Forest vs Leeds — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Nott'm Forest and Leeds — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Nott'm Forest 49% · draw 29% · Leeds 22%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

Nott'm Forest predictions & form →Leeds predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →

More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.