USA: MLSSaturday 25 Jul, 22:30 UTC

Red Bull New York vCharlotte FC

Most likely scoreline
11
10% of the time · 3.39 goals expected
Red Bull New York 38%Draw 28%Charlotte FC 35%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
82%

Over 1.5 Goals sits at 82% probability because both sides project nearly identical attacking threat at 1.73 and 1.66 xG respectively, virtually guaranteeing a multi-goal match.

How we get there
Red Bull New YorkstepCharlotte FC
1.53Base xG · rolling 26-match1.76
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.73Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.66
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
82%
Under 2.5 goals
31%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

New York Red Bulls average 4.6 corners per game at home this season (23 competitive matches). Charlotte average 4.1 corners per game away from home this season (22 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
3
6
5
3
1
1
6
10
8
4
2
1
2
5
8
7
4
2
1
3
3
5
4
2
1
4
1
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

New York Red Bulls vs Charlotte — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 21 March 2026, New York Red Bulls have won 0, Charlotte have won 1, with 0 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
21 March 2026Charlotte 61 New York Red BullsUSA: MLS

The model's verdict for this fixture: New York Red Bulls 38% · draw 28% · Charlotte 35%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Red Bull New York 02 Charlotte FC
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.