What we expect
Our forecast for this match.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
Ranked by our probability, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 75%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Vanuatu vs Fiji?
Bawler's model rates this match: Vanuatu are favoured (75% win probability vs 8% for Fiji, 17% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Vanuatu vs Fiji?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Vanuatu 2-0 Fiji (12.7% probability). Expected total goals: 3.2.
How does Bawler predict Vanuatu vs Fiji?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Vanuatu 75%, the draw 17% and Fiji 8%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Vanuatu vs Fiji?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 46% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Vanuatu expecting 2.45 goals and Fiji 0.71.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Vanuatu vs Fiji?
Bawler's model expects 3.2 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 61%.