How it finished
Watford beat Southampton 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Southampton at 39% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Watford 33%. It forecast 2.7 goals and the match produced 3. Watford had 16 shots (4 on target) to Southampton's 17 (3), with 34% of the ball against 66%. On expected goals it was 0.8 to 1.7, so Southampton created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
No first-half forecast for this fixture.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Watford vs Southampton?
Watford beat Southampton 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Southampton at 39% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Watford 33%. It forecast 2.7 goals and the match produced 3. Watford had 16 shots (4 on target) to Southampton's 17 (3), with 34% of the ball against 66%. On expected goals it was 0.8 to 1.7, so Southampton created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Watford vs Southampton?
Watford 2–1 Southampton, played on 16 Aug 2026 in the England: Championship. Bawler's model had gone into it with Watford 33%, the draw 28% and Southampton 39%.
What were the stats in Watford vs Southampton?
Full-time: Possession 34%–66%, Expected goals (xG) 0.8–1.7, Shots 16–17, Shots on target 4–3, Shots inside box 11–11, Big chances 2–3, Corners 4–8, Saves 2–2, Fouls 12–9, Offsides 0–3, Yellow cards 6–3.
Did both teams score in Watford vs Southampton?
Yes — both Watford and Southampton scored, finishing 2–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 55% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Watford vs Southampton right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Southampton or draw 67%, it finished Watford won (33% called); Total goals — we said 2.7, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 55%, it finished Yes; Graded pick (as published before kickoff) — we said Watford or draw 63%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 51%, it finished Landed.