Spain: La LigaThursday 20 Aug, 19:00 UTC

Rayo Vallecano vAlavés

Most likely scoreline
1–0
12% of the time · 2.62 goals expected
Rayo Vallecano 47%Draw 30%Alavés 23%
How we get there
Rayo VallecanostepAlavés
1.68Base xG · rolling 26-match0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.68Final goal estimate — what the model uses0.94

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

Rayo Vallecano average 6.7 corners per game at home this season (25 competitive matches). Alaves average 4.0 corners per game away from home this season (19 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
7
3
1
1
12
12
5
2
2
10
10
5
1
3
6
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Rayo Vallecano fixtures & form →Alavés fixtures & form →

Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 23 May 2026, Rayo Vallecano have won 1, Alaves have won 0, with 0 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
23 May 2026Alaves 1–2 Rayo VallecanoSpain: La Liga

The model's verdict for this fixture: Rayo Vallecano 47% · draw 30% · Alaves 23%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

Rayo Vallecano predictions & form →Alaves predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.