How it finished
Rayo Vallecano and Alavés drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Rayo Vallecano at 49% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 27%. It forecast 2.6 goals and the match produced 2. Rayo Vallecano had 8 shots (3 on target) to Alavés' 15 (3), with 48% of the ball against 52%. Expected goals finished 0.4 to 1.9.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
No first-half forecast for this fixture.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Rayo Vallecano vs Alavés?
Rayo Vallecano and Alavés drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Rayo Vallecano at 49% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 27%. It forecast 2.6 goals and the match produced 2. Rayo Vallecano had 8 shots (3 on target) to Alavés' 15 (3), with 48% of the ball against 52%. Expected goals finished 0.4 to 1.9.
What was the final score in Rayo Vallecano vs Alavés?
Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Alavés, played on 20 Aug 2026 in the SPAIN: LaLiga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Rayo Vallecano 49%, the draw 27% and Alavés 24%.
What were the stats in Rayo Vallecano vs Alavés?
Full-time: Possession 48%–52%, Expected goals (xG) 0.4–1.9, Shots 8–15, Shots on target 3–3, Shots inside box 5–10, Big chances 1–4, Corners 9–7, Saves 2–2, Fouls 14–13, Offsides 1–0, Yellow cards 1–2.
Did both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Alavés?
Yes — both Rayo Vallecano and Alavés scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 51% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Rayo Vallecano vs Alavés right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Rayo Vallecano or draw 76%, it finished Draw (27% called); Total goals — we said 2.6, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 51%, it finished Yes; Second pick — we said Under 2.5 goals 52%, it finished Landed.