Venezia vs Lecce prediction — Serie A · Sun 23 Aug · 17:30 UK

Serie A · Sun 23 Aug · 17:30 UK
Venezia 51Draw 27Lecce 22
Our call before kickoff
78%
Venezia or draw
Missed
2.5
Goals expected
Full time
Final 0–2
Both teams score (before kick-off)
48%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
46%

How it finished

Lecce beat Venezia 2–0. Bawler's model favoured Venezia at 51% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Lecce 22%. It forecast 2.5 goals and the match produced 2. Venezia had 19 shots (7 on target) to Lecce's 12 (5), with 71% of the ball against 29%. Expected goals finished 2.1 to 2.2.

VeneziaFull-time statsLecce
71%Possession29%
2.1Expected goals (xG)2.2
19Shots12
7Shots on target5
12Shots inside box7
6Big chances3
5Corners3
2Saves6
8Fouls12
2Offsides2
1Yellow cards3
What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callVenezia or draw 78%Lecce won (22% called)
Total goals2.52
Both teams to score48%No
Second pickUnder 2.5 goals 54%Landed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

VeneziaLecce
1.6
Goals+0.6
0.9

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability
Venezia to score79%
Under 3.5 goals76%
Over 1.5 goals71%
Lecce to score61%

No first-half forecast for this fixture.

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (home minus away)+0.6 / match
Head-to-head, last 5Venezia 1 · Draws 2 · Lecce 2
Lecce in their league tableLower half

Head to head

Apr 2025Lecce 1–1 Venezia
Nov 2024Venezia 0–1 Lecce
May 2021Lecce 1–1 Venezia
May 2021Venezia 1–0 Lecce
Mar 2021Venezia 2–3 Lecce
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Venezia vs Lecce?

Lecce beat Venezia 2–0. Bawler's model favoured Venezia at 51% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Lecce 22%. It forecast 2.5 goals and the match produced 2. Venezia had 19 shots (7 on target) to Lecce's 12 (5), with 71% of the ball against 29%. Expected goals finished 2.1 to 2.2.

What was the final score in Venezia vs Lecce?

Venezia 0–2 Lecce, played on 23 Aug 2026 in the ITALY: Serie A. Bawler's model had gone into it with Venezia 51%, the draw 27% and Lecce 22%.

What were the stats in Venezia vs Lecce?

Full-time: Possession 71%–29%, Expected goals (xG) 2.1–2.2, Shots 19–12, Shots on target 7–5, Shots inside box 12–7, Big chances 6–3, Corners 5–3, Saves 2–6, Fouls 8–12, Offsides 2–2, Yellow cards 1–3.

Did both teams score in Venezia vs Lecce?

No. It finished 0–2, so Venezia failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 48% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Venezia vs Lecce right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Venezia or draw 78%, it finished Lecce won (22% called); Total goals — we said 2.5, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 48%, it finished No; Second pick — we said Under 2.5 goals 54%, it finished Landed.

Around this fixture

Serie A table →
All fixtures & results →Venezia form →Lecce form →