Who will win Stoke City vs Hull City?

Bawler's model rates this match: Stoke City are favoured (52% win probability vs 19% for Hull City, 29% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Stoke City vs Hull City?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Stoke City 1-0 Hull City (11.6% probability). Expected total goals: 2.70.

How does Bawler predict Stoke City vs Hull City?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Stoke City 52%, the draw 29% and Hull City 19%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Stoke City vs Hull City?

BTTS: Yes (51% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.73 and away expected goals 0.97.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Stoke City vs Hull City?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.70. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

England: EFL CupTuesday 25 Aug, 18:45 UTC

Stoke City vHull City

Most likely scoreline

1–0

12% of the time · 2.70 goals expected

Stoke City 52%Draw 29%Hull City 19%

How we get there

Stoke Citystep

Hull City

1.73Base xG · rolling 26-match0.97

no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob

1.73Final goal estimate — what the model uses0.97

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

Stoke average 6.0 corners per game at home this season (25 competitive matches). Hull average 4.6 corners per game away from home this season (24 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate

home windrawaway win

Team news — absences and latest club updates· as of 16 Aug 2026

Hull CityAway

Unavailable / doubtful

Charlie Hughes — Double hernia surgery at the end of the 2025/26 season, having played through the pain barrier (Hull Daily Mail, 27 Jul).
Expected return: unconfirmed — A genuine GW1 doubt — and the most significant one at the club, since FFScout named him one of…
Eliot Matazo — Cruciate ligament tear. Date of injury also conflicts: Transfermarkt says 25 April 2026, the research trail says mid-January 2026.
Expected return: reports differ — Transfermarkt says 30 November 2026; FotMob says ~mid-January 2027; hullcitynews.co.uk…
Hidemasa Morita — Calf injury, already roughly three weeks old on arrival
Expected return: Jakirović, 27 July: 'another 10 days away from the pitch' → approximately 6 August.
Mohamed Belloumi — Hamstring tightness felt in the warm-up at half-time v Rizespor; withdrew from a planned 30 minutes v Konyaspor
Expected return: Assistant Dean Holden, 28 July: 'Mo's trained today, he literally just felt a bit of stiffness, a bit of…
Lewie Coyle — Captain and first-choice right-back. Two overlapping reports: assistant Dean Holden on 28 July described a pre-existing ankle niggle ('something he's been feeling for a…
Expected return: UNVERIFIED — severity unknown as of 30 July. Right-back is also an active recruitment area. Monitor closely.

+5 more absences reported

Latest updates

14 Aug · Departure
Abu Kamara sold to Portsmouth in permanent deal
Winger Abu Kamara, 23, left Hull City permanently for Portsmouth on 10 August for a reported £2.5m (€2.9m), signing a three-year contract at Fratton Park.
14 Aug · Signing
Australia teenager Lucas Herrington joins from Colorado Rapids
Hull announced the signing of 18-year-old right-sided centre-back Lucas Herrington from Colorado Rapids on a five-year contract running to 2031, for a fee reported at roughly €14.8m — a…

Club news is gathered once a day from club statements and reporting, last on 16 Aug 2026. It is not a confirmed team sheet — squads are named about an hour before kick-off, after this page was built, so late fitness news may not appear above.

Predicted lineups — expected XI, not a confirmed team sheet

Hull CityAway4-2-3-1 · shape not settled
Goalkeeper
GKJack Butland (or Konstantinos Tzolakis if the deal is announced)
Defence
RBLewie Coyle (c) — injury doubtCBSemi AjayiCBJohn Egan (Charlie Hughes returns here if fit)LBRyan Giles
Midfield
CMRegan SlaterCMMatt Crooks (Hidemasa Morita likely in once fit)AMKieran Dowell
Attack
RWAbu KamaraLWLiam MillarSTOli McBurnie
Selection doubts
·BASIS: this is the Çaykur Rizespor XI of 28 July (4-2-3-1), clearly the strongest side named so far — Butland; Coyle, Ajayi, Egan, Giles; Slater, Crooks; Kamara, Dowell, Millar; McBurnie.
·THIS XI IS LOW CONFIDENCE.

Our projected starting elevens from squad news as of 30 July 2026 — not team sheets. Clubs confirm their starting elevens around an hour before kick-off, after this page was built. Only one side in this fixture is covered by our squad dossiers.

More predictions for these teams

Stoke City fixtures & form →

Hull City fixtures & form →

Stoke vs Hull — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Stoke and Hull — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Stoke 52% · draw 29% · Hull 19%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

Stoke predictions & form →Hull predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →

More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.