Bawler / ENGLAND: Championship / Stoke
Team profile

Stoke Prediction

Per-game numbers from 49 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
11.1
a game
12.5 faced
On target
3.6
a game
4.0 faced
Goals
1.1 – 1.2
scored – conceded
a game, 49 matches
Next match
15%
Stoke win chance
at Southampton · Sat 22 Aug 14:00

Stoke prediction: for Stoke's next match — Southampton vs Stoke on Saturday 22 Aug, 14:00 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Southampton are favoured (58%).

Stoke sit close to the Championship average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.20 expected goals a game and conceding 1.27. Their finishing has lagged the chances they make — 0.86 goals a game against 1.20 expected. They have struggled lately, losing 4 of their last 5. Next up is a trip to Southampton, where the model has them as underdogs at 15%.

Stoke in numbers

49 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.1
Goals · per game
let in 1.2
Home 1.5Away 0.7
5.8
Corners · per game
give up 4.8
Home 6.0Away 5.6
11.1
Shots · per game
faced 12.5
Home 12.3Away 9.9
3.6
On target · per game
faced 4.0
Home 4.4Away 2.8
Last 6 games
15 Aug
1-2
vs Swansea
4-5
08 Aug
2-0
vs Oldham
3-3
08 Aug
2-0
vs Oldham Athletic
3-3
02 May
0-2
@ Bristol City
15-2
25 Apr
1-3
vs Portsmouth
8-1
21 Apr
1-3
vs Millwall
11-1

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Southampton · Saturday 22 Aug, 14:00 UTC

Win
15%
Stoke
Draw
27%
Loss
58%
Southampton
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Stoke compare with the ENGLAND: Championship average, per match.

Goals for
1.20
Below average
Goals against
1.27
Tighter than most
Record
2W 0D 5L
7 settled
Real goals
0.9 – 1.6
For / against, per match
Scored1.20
Conceded1.27

The grey line on each bar is the ENGLAND: Championship average (1.27 scored, 1.28 conceded).

What the data says
Model is strongest on: Result
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Stoke fixtures (4/4).

How Bawler has done on Stoke

100%
of high-confidence calls correct — 7 of 7, well above the ~65% baseline
Result100%4/4
Goals (Over/Under)100%3/3

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Later fixtures

Tue 25 Augvs Hull City

Recent matches (last 7)

Sat 15 Augvs Swansea City
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 08 Augvs Oldham Athletic
High confidence: Stoke City or Draw
Sat 02 May@ Bristol City
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 18 Apr@ Wrexham
High confidence: 1X
Mon 06 Apr@ Derby
High confidence: 1X
Fri 03 Aprvs Sheffield Wed
High confidence: 1X
Fri 20 Mar@ Preston
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

More on Stoke and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly