Al Hazem and Neom SC drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Neom SC at 45% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 27%. It forecast 2.8 goals; only 2 were scored. Al Hazem had 7 shots (3 on target) to Neom SC's 9 (3), with 38% of the ball against 62%. Expected goals finished 0.7 to 1.6.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 65%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Al Hazem and Neom SC drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Neom SC at 45% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 27%. It forecast 2.8 goals; only 2 were scored. Al Hazem had 7 shots (3 on target) to Neom SC's 9 (3), with 38% of the ball against 62%. Expected goals finished 0.7 to 1.6.
Al Hazem 1–1 Neom SC, played on 10 Oct 2026 in the Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Al Hazem 28%, the draw 27% and Neom SC 45%.
Full-time: Possession 38%–62%, Expected goals (xG) 0.7–1.6, Shots 7–9, Shots on target 3–3, Shots inside box 6–8, Big chances 1–3, Corners 2–5, Saves 2–2, Fouls 13–8, Offsides 2–3, Yellow cards 3–0.
Yes — both Al Hazem and Neom SC scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 55% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Neom SC or draw 72%, it finished Draw (27% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 55%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 76%, it finished Landed.