Portugal: Primeira LigaSunday 16 Aug, 17:00 UTC

Arouca vMoreirense

Most likely scoreline
1–1
12% of the time · 2.71 goals expected
Arouca 46%Draw 29%Moreirense 25%
Strongest call
Arouca or draw
77%

Arouca's 0.52 expected-goals advantage underpins a 1X forecast at 77%, signaling the hosts are likelier to avoid defeat than surrender at home.

How we get there
AroucastepMoreirense
1.43Base xG · rolling 26-match1.16
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.61Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.09
Most likely outcomes
Arouca or draw
77%
Arouca to win
50%
Draw
27%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Arouca average 4.1 corners per game at home this season (17 competitive matches). Moreirense average 3.3 corners per game away from home this season (17 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
7
4
1
1
11
12
6
2
1
2
9
10
5
2
1
3
5
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Arouca fixtures & form →Moreirense fixtures & form →

Arouca vs Moreirense — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 21 March 2026, Arouca have won 1, Moreirense have won 0, with 0 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
21 March 2026Moreirense 0–1 AroucaPORTUGAL: Liga Portugal

The model's verdict for this fixture: Arouca 46% · draw 29% · Moreirense 25%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

Arouca predictions & form →Moreirense predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.