How it finished
Manchester City beat Crystal Palace 4–1. Bawler's model had Manchester City in front at 38% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals; the match produced 5. Crystal Palace had 9 shots (1 on target) to Manchester City's 18 (9), with 28% of the ball against 72%. Expected goals finished 0.6 to 1.5.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 77%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Crystal Palace vs Manchester City?
Manchester City beat Crystal Palace 4–1. Bawler's model had Manchester City in front at 38% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals; the match produced 5. Crystal Palace had 9 shots (1 on target) to Manchester City's 18 (9), with 28% of the ball against 72%. Expected goals finished 0.6 to 1.5.
What was the final score in Crystal Palace vs Manchester City?
Crystal Palace 1–4 Manchester City, played on 28 Aug 2026 in the ENGLAND: Premier League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Crystal Palace 36%, the draw 26% and Manchester City 38%.
What were the stats in Crystal Palace vs Manchester City?
Full-time: Possession 28%–72%, Expected goals (xG) 0.6–1.5, Shots 9–18, Shots on target 1–9, Shots inside box 6–12, Big chances 2–4, Corners 2–6, Saves 4–1, Fouls 8–10, Offsides 3–0, Yellow cards 1–2.
Did both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Manchester City?
Yes — both Crystal Palace and Manchester City scored, finishing 1–4. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 59% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Crystal Palace vs Manchester City right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Manchester City or draw 64%, it finished Manchester City won (38% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 5; Both teams to score — we said 59%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 79%, it finished Landed.